Publications

Refereed Publications

  1. Kravtsov, S., 2017a: Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5 simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5749–5757, doi: 10.1002/2017GL074016.
  2. Kravtsov, S., 2017b: Comment on ‘‘Comparison of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations. J. Climate, 30, 9763–9772, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0438.1.
  3. Kravtsov, S., and D. Callicutt, 2017: On semi-empirical decomposition of multidecadal climate variability into forced and internally generated components. International J. Climatology37, 4417–4433, doi: 10.1002/joc.5096.
  4. Kravtsov, S., P. Roebber, and V. Brazauskas (2017), A virtual climate library of surface temperature over North America for 1979–2015, Scientific Data, 4, 170,155EP, doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.155.
  5. Kravtsov, S., N. Sugiyama and P. Roebber, 2017: Role of nonlinear dynamics in accelerated warming of Great Lakes. In: Advances in Nonlinear Geosciences. 2017. Springer International Publishing. 279–296. ISBN 978-3-319-58894-0.
  6. Sugiyama, N., S. Kravtsov, and P. Roebber, 2017: Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake–ice–atmosphere model. Climate Dyn., DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3633-x.
  7. Kravtsov, S., N. Tilinina, Y. Zyulyaeva, and S. Gulev, 2016: Empirical modeling and stochastic simulation of sea-level pressure variability. J. Appl. Meteor. Climat.55, 1197­­–1219, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0186.1.
  8. Jajcay, N., J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis and M. Palus, 2016: Time scales of the European surface air-temperature variability: The role of 7–8-year cycle. Geophys. Res. Letts., 43, 902–909, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067325.
  9. Kravtsov, S., M. Wyatt, J. Curry, and A. A. Tsonis, 2015: Comment on “Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures.Science, 350, 1326, DOI: 10.1126/science.aab3570.
  10. Kravtsov, S., Rudeva, and S. Gulev, 2015: Reconstructing sea-level pressure variability via a feature tracking approach. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 487-506, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0169.1.
  11. Kravtsov, S., N. Sugiyama, and A. A. Tsonis, 2014. Transient behavior in the Lorenz model. Nonlin. Processes Geophys. Discuss., 1, 1905–1917. DOI: 10.5194/npgd-1-1905-2014.
  12. Kravtsov, S., M. G. Wyatt, J. A. Curry, and A. A. Tsonis, 2014: Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the 20th century. Geophys. Res. Lett., published online, doi:10.1002/2014GL061416.
  13. Hanrahan, J., P. Roebber, and S. Kravtsov, 2014: Attribution of decadal-scale lake-level trends in the Michigan–Huron system. Water, 6 (8), 2278–2299, DOI: 10.3390/w6082278.
  14. Kravtsov, S., and S. Gulev, 2013: Kinematics of eddy–mean-flow interaction in an idealized atmospheric model. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 2574–2595. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0309.1.
  15. Kravtsov, S., 2012: An empirical model of decadal ENSO variability. Climate Dynamics, 39, 2377–2391. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1424-y.
  16. Peters, J., and S. Kravtsov, 2012: Origin of non-Gaussian regimes and predictability in an atmospheric model. J. Atmos. Sci.,69(8), 2587–2599. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0316.1.
  17. Peters, J. M., Kravtsov, S. V., Schwartz, N. (2012). Predictability associated with nonlinear regimes in an atmospheric model. J. Atmos.Sci.,69(3), 1137–1154. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-11-0168.1.
  18. Wyatt, M., S. Kravtsov, and A. A. Tsonis, 2012: Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere’s climate variability. Climate Dyn., 38, 929–949, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1071-8.
  19. Kravtsov, S., I. Kamenkovich, D. Kondrashov, and M. Ghil, 2011: Empirical stochastic model of sea-surface temperatures and surface winds over the Southern Ocean. Ocean Sciences, 7, 755–770. DOI: 10.5194/os-7-755-2011.
  20. Kravtsov, S., I. Kamenkovich, A. M. Hogg, J. M. Peters, 2011: On the mechanisms of late 20th century sea-surface temperature trends over the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 116, C11034. DOI: 10.1029/2011JC007473.
  21. Kravtsov, S., and R. Olivas Saunders, 2011; Comment on “Lies, damned lies, and statistics (in Geology).” Eos Trans. of AGU, 92, 65. DOI: 10.1029/2011EO080011.
  22. Culina, J., S. Kravtsov, and A. Monahan, 2011: Stochastic parameterisation schemes for use in realistic climate models. J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 284–299.   DOI: 10.1175/2010JAS3509.1.
  23. Kondrashov, D., S. Kravtsov, and M. Ghil, 2010: Signatures of nonlinear dynamics in an idealized atmospheric model.J. Atmos. Sci., 68, 3–12. DOI: 10.1175/2010JAS3524.1.
  24. Dharshana, K. G. T., S. Kravtsov, and J. D. W. Kahl, 2010: The relationship between synoptic weather disturbances and particulate-matter air pollution over the US. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 115, D24219. DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014852.
  25. Jamison, N., and S. Kravtsov, 2010: Decadal variations of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature in observations and CMIP3 simulations. J. Climate, 23, 4619–4636. DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3598.1
  26. Hanrahan, J. L., S. Kravtsov, M. Ghil, and P. Roebber, 2010: Connecting past and present climate variability to the water levels of Lakes Michigan and Huron. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L01701, DOI:10.1029/2009GL041707.
  27. Strounine, K., S. Kravtsov, D. Kondrashov, and M. Ghil, 2010: Reduced models of atmospheric low-frequency variability: Parameter estimation and comparative performance. Physica D, 239, 145–166, DOI:10.1016/j.physd.2009.10.013.
  28. Hogg, A., W. K. Dewar, P. Berloff, S. Kravtsov, and D. K. Hutchinson, 2009: The effects of mesoscale ocean–atmosphere coupling on the large-scale ocean circulation. J. Climate, 22, 4066–4082. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2629.1.
  29. Kravtsov, S., M. Ghil, and D. Kondrashov, 2009: Empirical Model Reduction and the Modeling Hierarchy in Climate Dynamics and the Geosciences. Stochastic Physics and Climate Modeling, T. Palmer and P. Williams, Eds., Cambridge University Press, pp. 35-72.
  30. Hanrahan, J. L., S. Kravtsov, and P. J. Roebber, 2009: Quasi-periodic decadal cycles in levels of lakes Michigan and Huron. Great Lakes Res.,35, 30–35. DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2008.11.004.
  31. Kravtsov, S., Hoeve, J. E. T., S. B. Feldstein, S. Lee, and S.-W. Sun, 2009: The relationship between statistically linear and nonlinear feedbacks and zonal-mean flow variability in an idealized climate model. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 353–372. DOI: 10.1175/2008JAS2804.1.
  32. Kravtsov, S., W. K. Dewar, M. Ghil, J. C. McWilliams, and P. Berloff, 2008: A mechanistic model of mid-latitude decadal climate variability. Physica D, 237, 584–599, DOI:10.1016/j.physd.2007.09.025.
  33. Kravtsov, S., and C. Spannagle, 2008: Multi-decadal climate variability in observed and simulated surface temperatures. J. Climate, 21, 1104–1121. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI1874.1.
  34. Kravtsov, S., W. K. Dewar, P. Berloff, J. C. McWilliams, and M. Ghil, 2008: North Atlantic climate variability in coupled models and data. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 15, 13­–24. DOI: 10.5194/npg-15-13-2008.
  35. Tsonis, A. A., K. Swanson, and S. Kravtsov, 2007: A new dynamical mechanism for major climate shifts. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L13705, DOI: 10.1029/2007GL030288.
  36. Kravtsov, S., W. K. Dewar, P. Berloff, J. C. McWilliams, and M. Ghil, 2007: A highly nonlinear coupled mode of decadal variability in a mid-latitude ocean–atmosphere model. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 43, 123–150, DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2006.08.001.
  37. Berloff, P., S. Kravtsov, W. K. Dewar, and J. C. McWilliams, 2007: Ocean eddy dynamics in a coupled ocean–atmosphere model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 37, 1103–1121. DOI: 10.1175/JPO3041.1.
  38. Kravtsov, S. P. Berloff, W. K. Dewar, M. Ghil, and J. C. McWilliams, 2006: Dynamical origin of low-frequency variability in a highly nonlinear mid-latitude coupled model. J. Climate, 19, 6391–6408. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3976.1.
  39. Kondrashov, D., S. Kravtsov, and M. Ghil, 2006: Empirical mode reduction in a model of extratropical low-frequency variability. J. Atmos. Sci., 63,1859-1877. DOI: 10.1175/JAS3719.1.
  40. Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2006: Multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere’s zonal-mean flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 840-860. DOI: 10.1175/JAS3672.1.
  41. Kondrashov, D., S. Kravtsov, A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2005: A hierarchy of data-based ENSO models. J. Climate, 18, 4425-4444. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3567.1.
  42. Kravtsov, S., D. Kondrashov, and M. Ghil, 2005: Multi-level regression modeling of nonlinear processes: Derivation and applications to climatic variability. J. Climate, 18, 4404-4424. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3544.1.
  43. Kravtsov, S., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2005: Bimodal behavior in the zonal mean flow of a baroclinic β-channel model. J. Atmos. Sci., 62,1746­–1769. DOI: 10.1175/JAS3443.1.
  44. Kravtsov, S., and M. Ghil, 2004: Interdecadal variability in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmospheresea-ice model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 1756-1775. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(2004)034<1756:IVIAHC>2.0.CO;2.
  45. Kravtsov, S. V., A. W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2003: Low-frequency variability in a baroclinic β-channel model with land-sea contrast. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2267-2293, 409TSTS56. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<2267:LVIABC>2.0.CO;2.
  46. Kravtsov, S. V., and W. K. Dewar, 2003: On the role of thermohaline advection and sea ice in glacial transitions. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 108, 3203-3221, 2002JC001439. DOI: 10.1029/2002JC001439.
  47. Kravtsov, S. V., and A. W. Robertson, 2002: Midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction in an idealized coupled model. Clim. Dyn., 19, 693-711. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-002-0256-6.
  48. Kravtsov, S. V., and A. W. Robertson, 2001: On midlatitude ocean-atmosphere interaction in a simple coupled model. CLIVAR Exchanges, 19, 7-8.
  49. Kravtsov, S. V., 2000: Sea ice and climate. Part II: Model climate sensitivity to perturbations of the hydrological cycle. J. Climate, 13, 463-487. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<0463:SIACPI>2.0.CO;2.
  50. Kravtsov, S. V., and W. K. Dewar, 1998: Multiple equilibria and transitions in a coupled ocean-atmosphere box model. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 28, 389-397. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(1998)028<0389:MEATIA>2.0.CO;2.
  51. Kravtsov, S. V., 1998: Sea Ice and Climate Sensitivity. PhD Thesis, Department of Oceanography, Florida State University.

Articles Pending Publication and Under Review

  1. Jajcay, N., S. Kravtsov, A. Tsonis, and M. Palus, 2017: Synchronization and causality across time-scales: Complex dynamics and extremes in El Nino/SouthernOscillation. Main Text + Supplementary Information. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., under review.
  2. Sugiyama, N., S. Kravtsov, and P. Roebber, 2017b: Simulating recent warming of the Great Lakes in an idealized lake–ice–atmosphere modelJ. Climate, submitted.
  3. Roebber, P., V. Brazauskas, and S. Kravtsov, 2017: The actuarial utility of weather and climate predictions. 2018 Climate Change, Casualty Actuarial Society, submitted.

Manuscripts in Preparation and Unpublished Manuscripts

  1. Gulev, S. K., N. Tilinina, S. Kravtsov, O. Zolina, and P. Roebber, 2017: On estimation of cyclone deepening rates from cyclone tracking results. Mon. Wea. Rev., in preparation.
  2. Kravtsov, S.,  and A. A. Tsonis, 2008: How much of global warming is due to natural climate variability? Unpublished manuscript
  3. Kravtsov, S., N. Suqiyama, and A. A. Tsonis, 2015: Transient behavior in the Lorenz model. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., not accepted.